Sunday, January 5, 2020

Kicked Out of Iraq?

Say we get asked to leave Iraq.
Iraq puts a lot of oil on the market.
Iran, not so much, due to the sanctions.
Will Iran take control of Iraq?

If Iraq becomes an Iranian subsidy, do the oil profits go to Iraq or Iran?
Has the Iraqi Parliament considered this?

If those revenues go to Iran, watch the sanctions get expanded to Iraq.
Not a smart move for those Iraqi Parliament members next election.

It would also affect global oil prices. Does that hurt America? Our allies?
Or would the Sauds increase production (my guess)?

I doubt Iran is going to be allowed to skirt sanctions by laundering money through Iraq.

So. Maybe Iraq goes full sovereign, rejects Iran (and us) and life goes on.
Iran stays constrained on a global scale.
Iraq may become an overt radical Islamic nation but isolated.
Maybe they go back to opposing Iran like they did under Saddam.

We can only hope.
I lied.
We can pray.


  1. Shakespeare's line about a "tempest in a teapot" comes to mind.

  2. We can hope AND pray! And what worries me is the coalition of Russia, China and Iran. That's troubling! Also, I don't think Iraq would ever really be isolated.

    1. Yep. China might be a worse threat that Iran.
      As a believer in Biblical prophecy, I watch these things with Har-Megiddo in mind.

  3. The Iraqi Shittes don't want Iran to come in and take over their rice bowl (and break it). Sure, the Ayatollah can say that Allah wills it, but that doesn't mean that it will happen. And what about ISIS? Will it return? Does a bear crap in the woods?

    There are a lot of moving parts, but bottom line is that Iraq has to appear to care about the drone strike. And they've done their non-binding, symbolic vote, to pander to the Imam and his hoards. But I don't see it going beyond that.

    1. Yes. I like your view here:

    2. I am with LL... about how I see it. Their so called vote was by Iranian bought stoodges. Either way its a dicey situation.

  4. This vote was non-binding, as the current PM is in caretaker status, having resigned last month. Another vote is scheduled for the 11th, as of now. The current ‘invitation’ from the GOI stipulates a one year time frame for withdrawal from date of notification. It remains to be seen if that is followed.

    The largest bloc (following the breakup of the Dawa Party) is the Iranian aligned Fatah followed by Muqtada al-Sadr’s Sairoon bloc. Iranian interests control the parliament.

    Lots of other machinations in the works, but that’s the current overlay we’re working under, on the political scene.

    1. I appreciate your insight on this.
      And your post on the matter:

  5. Someone smarter than me last week pointed out that now that we're oil-independent we no longer need to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, but we do need to be able to shut it down.
    Wouldn't most of that Iraqi oil have to come through that pinch?
    Let 'em drink that stuff.

  6. First off, we have no business or profit by staying in Iraq or anywhere in the sandbox. Otherwise:
    -We are a net exporter of oil and LNG
    -Iran could probably take Iraq and has wanted to a long time and was the reason for saddamn's WMD threats real or otherwise.
    If Iran takes over Iraq? Who cares. Let's worry about threats to America. I believe many democrat pols are on the Iran payroll, maybe Iraq too.
    Time for some scorched Earth if the need arises.

  7. Non-binding, so it's a bluff...